Modern media is often accused of creating story lines where there aren’t any in an effort to satisfy our need for more information and more drama. Every tweet is a possible lead for a story, innocuous subcontext could be the next big scoop. Fortunately, there will be no need for sensationalism at the 2015 French Open. The stories leading into the tournament sell themselves.
Even before this year’s men’s draw came out there was plenty to talk about. Can anyone stop Novak Djokovic in his current form? Is Andy Murray primed for not just a bounce-back year, but a career year? Is uttering the name “Roger Federer” and the word “darkhorse” in the same sentence sacrilegious? To top it all off Rafa Nadal begrudgingly accepted his fate as a 6 seed, putting him on a collision course with Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals.
Nadal was quoted as saying after his quarterfinal loss to Stan Wawrinka at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, his fifth loss of the clay court season, “If I go to Roland Garros and I lose and I don’t play well, life continues. It’s not the end of the world.” It’s hard to believe Nadal will adopt such a resigned attitude come match play, but we’ve never seen “The King of Clay” so vulnerable.
Here’s our breakdown of each quarter of the draw and our semifinal predictions.
1 Seed Quarter of The Bracket
As I mentioned earlier, a meeting between Djokovic in the quarters appears inevitable. In Nadal’s current form however, it may not be a foregone conclusion. With the likes of Nicolas Almagro, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Grigor Dimitrov all possible opponents leading up to the quarters, Nadal has to be much sharper than he’s been over the course of the last few months. This side of the draw is littered with talent (Gasquet 20 seed, Tomic 27 seed, Kevin Anderson 15 seed) but expect to see some familiar faces when the dust settles.
Juiciest Possible Matchup: (1) Novak Djokovic vs. (6) Rafa Nadal (quarterfinals)
Predicted Semifinalist: Novak Djokovic
2 Seed Quarter of The Bracket
Roger Federer must have a had a wry smile on his face when the draw was announced. With Nadal, Murray and Djokovic all battling it out on the opposite side of the bracket, this represents a great chance for Federer to get back to the French Open final, something he hasn’t done since 2011. Federer will also relish the opportunity to play his fellow countryman Stan Wawrinka in quarterfinals, someone whom he has a 16-2 record against and just recently dispatched of in the semifinals in Rome. In Fed’s current form it’s hard to expect anything besides a semi-final berth.
Juiciest Possible Matchup: (2) Roger Federer vs (13) Gael Monfils (4th Round)
Predicted Semifinalist: Roger Federer
3 Seed Quarter of The Bracket
All Serbians aside, Andy Murray might be the hottest player on the planet at the moment. With two clay court titles (Munich and Madrid) under his belt already this year it looks like Murray is back to peak “British Wimbledon Champion” Murray. Murray’s greatest asset has always been his defensive prowess which requires him to be one of, if not the most fit player on tour. It was clear last year his back surgery limited his ability to be that player. I expect Murray to take down upstart Nick Kyrgios, who he beat in the quarters earlier this year at the Australian Open, and 9th seeded Marin Cilic, who hasn’t made it past the round of 32 in any of of last three clay court appearances, on his way to the quarters. Don’t however, pencil Murray into the semi’s just because he’s been on a tear of late. The 7-seeded David Ferrer who is slated to play Murray in the quarters, has played Murray four times on clay in his career, and beaten him four times.
Juiciest Possible Matchup: (3) Andy Murray vs. (29) Nick Kyrgios
Predicted Semi-finalist: Andy Murray
4 Seed Quarter of The Bracket
This is the most unassuming side of the bracket, especially when you consider the 4th seeded Tomas Berdych has yet to win a tournament this year. The real favorite might be Kei Nishikori who has already won the clay court tournament in Barcelona and reached the semi-final in Madrid. Results can be deceiving however, because Nishikori has only beaten one top 10 player, David Ferrer, in 2015. He’s had some favorable draws, and all you can do is beat the people put in front of you, but to prove he’s a perennial top 5 player he’ll need to take down the higher seeds. Don’t be shocked if something wild happens on this side of the draw, a la Marin Cilic’s run at last year’s U.S. Open.
Juiciest Possible Matchup: (4) Tomas Berdych vs (14) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Predicted Semi-Finalist: Kei Nishikori
