Here are the facts. Rafa Nadal has won 13 Grand Slam titles, he has a unfathomable 59-1 record at the Roland Garros and he is currently the number 1 ranked player in the world. Based on these facts you’d be crazy to bet against Nadal lifting the trophy in Paris two weeks from now.
I’m hear to explain however, why Nadal won’t win.
He has not been playing his best tennis
It may seem absurd to say that the number one ranked player in the world is not in form, but if you look back at his results since the Australian Open it would be tough to argue against this point. Including his loss to Wawrinka in Australia, Nadal has failed to win 6 of the last 8 tournaments that he has entered. The fact that three of these losses have come on his beloved clay is is even more alarming. The last time Nadal lost three clay court matches in a season was a decade ago when he was 17 years old. Even the two finals triumphs over Dolgopolov (who he lost to a tournament later in the round of 32) and Nishikori (who had to withdraw after winning the 1st set) were far from inspiring.
The players on his side of the draw have tasted victory over him recently… on clay
The “King of Clay” reputation has taken a few blows lately with a few uncharacteristic defeats on his favorite surface. Of the three defeats on
clay two of them were at the hands of fellow Spaniards, Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer. Both players happen to be on his side of the draw this year. Almagro and Ferrer have dreadful career records vs Nadal but they will certainly be confident walking out on the court against Nadal if it comes to that point. Even Dimitrov who played him tough in Australia will be ready to go toe-to-toe with Nadal. By the way, that third clay court loss was to Novak Djokovic who would most likely be waiting for him in the finals. You give a player a bit of confidence where there once was none, and anything can happen.
The field is stronger than ever
For the past few years the big four (Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Murray) have dominated the field. This isn’t the case anymore. Wawrinka is riding the wave of his Australian Open victory, Ferrer has proved he can beat Nadal, and young guns like Nishikori and Dimitrov are close to being top ten regulars. The top ten is so deep Andy Murray has been forced down to 8th in the world. Even though Federer was knocked out in Monte Carlo early on (I’ll give him a break after just welcoming twin boys into the world) he’s been playing his best tennis in over a year and half. The feeling is that Wawrinka’s victory over Nadal gave the rest of the field hope that they too could be the darkhorse who comes out on top. Oh, and don’t forget about that man named Novak.
The pressure to make history will be a burden
Both Nadal and Bjorn Borg hold the record for most consecutive French Open titles, both having won 4 in a row at different points in their career. Nadal in fact, has achieved this feat on two separate occasions and has the chance to break this record with a win in Paris next month. The last time Nadal attempted to win his fifth consecutive French Open back in 2009 however, he was upset by Robin Soderling in the 4th round. This is the only time Nadal has ever lost at Roland Garros. Will Nadal crack under the same sort of pressure this time around? We’ll find out in the next two weeks.
